Temperatures rise in the South Caucasus

Overall, you wouldn’t really describe the current situation in our region as stable. Two capitals – Tbilisi and Yerevan – are seething with protests. Only Baku is calm. What forces are behind these events? In whose interests is it to sow discontent in two countries in the South Caucasus? And where could these mass public demonstrations lead?

Armenia

For several days thousands of people have been protesting in Yerevan against the government’s decision on the delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan. Demonstrators have been marching on the capital and blocking highways. Tavush Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan has become the face of the protests and is threatening Pashinyan’s government with impeachment. Meanwhile, the government is talking about a potential coup d’état.

The protest marches, rallies and acts of civil disobedience in Armenia have been going on for over a week. They were sparked by the government’s plans to hand four border villages back to Azerbaijan as part of the border delimitation agreement. People living in the Tavush region are worried about the loss of homes in the immediate vicinity of Azerbaijani positions.

On 4 May the Tavush for the Motherland movement set out to march on the capital, several days away from Tavush Province. Opponents of the delimitation process accuse the authorities of “unilateral concessions to Baku at the expense of Armenia’s territorial integrity”. With the blessing of Catholicos of All Armenians, Karekin II, the march was headed by Archbishop of the Tavush diocese Bagrat Galstanyan. He was joined by the leaders of other dioceses of the Armenian Church who started marches from different regions of Armenia.

The march reached Yerevan on 9 May. At a rally of thousands of people in front of the government building, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan called for the resignation of the Prime Minister. “Nikol Pashinyan, we’re giving you an hour to resign. During the next hour I’m willing to meet you to discuss all the terms of your resignation. You no longer have any authority in Armenia”, he announced from Republic Square. In his opinion, the current government has “completely failed at running the country”.

On Saturday the opposition also held a rally attended by thousands of people in front of the government building. In response to calls from Archbishop Bagrat, from the early morning protestors blocked several streets in Yerevan, as well as routes into the city, such as Freedom Avenue, Victory Bridge and the Tbilisi highway. There were acts of civil disobedience in different regions of Armenia and students from Yerevan State University also joined the protests.

According to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, 41 people were detained for taking part in street blockades. The opposition National Front reported that the police violently detained around 50 people who had been blocking Freedom Avenue. The Five Human Rights Defenders initiative said 48 people were detained on 11 May. All those arrested were taken into administrative detention for three hours and then released.

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan has been primate of the Tavush diocese since 2015. Tavush Province is situated in northern Armenia, bordering Azerbaijan. According to French international radio broadcaster RFI, the Archbishop is not eligible for the position of prime minister himself, as he holds a Canadian passport.

The protest was supported by the opposition, although the Armenian National Assembly can only initiate impeachment proceedings if at least 36 members of parliament vote in favour. This represents around a third of the total number of members of parliament. However, the two opposition parties, Armenia Alliance and I Have Honour Alliance, only have 35 seats.

Within the governing party, Civil Contract, it is believed that “a coup d’état is being prepared” and that the Church is involved. At a press conference on 7 May Nikol Pashinyan himself said that bowing to the demands of church leaders to halt the border delimitation process with Azerbaijan would inevitably lead to war and the installation of a puppet regime in Armenia.

The Armenian government announced on 19 April that, as part of the border delimitation agreement between Baku and Yerevan, control of four villages which were occupied during the first Karabakh war would be transferred to Azerbaijan. The demarcation of the border duly commenced on 23 April, with the installation of the first border post. Against the backdrop of the protests in Yerevan, talks were held in Kazakhstan on Friday between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Ministers of Foreign Affairs on key issues relating to the peace treaty.

How might the protests escalate? On Sunday evening another rally led by Archbishop Bagrat was held in Yerevan’s central square. Could this become a real threat to the current government? Could Nikol Pashinyan lose his position? It would mean all the albeit modest achievements of the peace process would also be lost. Or does the opposition lack the capacity and potential for that?

These questions were put by Pressklub.az to regional expert and Deputy Director of the Center for Studies of the South Caucasus, Fuad Chiragov.

Looking at the Armenian protests led by Tavush Archbishop Bagrat, Chiragov said doesn’t see any significant threat to Pashinyan’s government.

“Despite all the efforts of the opposition, the clergy and the radical Armenian lobby, they haven’t managed to get a critical mass of people out on to the streets and they can’t sustain the protests. That’s even though they understand that this is probably their last battle. They’ve just not been able to get enough people on to the streets. Look at Tbilisi in comparison. The recent protests in Yerevan were no different from previous demonstrations after the defeat in 2020. We’ve seen more angry crowds in the past. I think the protest is already losing momentum and we’re going to see it start to decline.”

Georgia
Against a backdrop of continuing protests in the country and criticism from the European Union, the Justice Committee of the Georgian Parliament approved the third reading of the ‘foreign agents’ bill.

“The Committee session started at 9am and was completed in just two minutes. We, the opposition, were denied entry. The Justice Committee signed the document in two minutes”, Georgian member of parliament, Ekaterine Kherkheulidze said at a briefing on Monday morning, 13 May, as reported by German broadcaster DW.

Media outlet Echo of the Caucasus also wrote that the Justice Committee supported the third reading after an extremely brief scrutiny of the ‘foreign agents’ bill.

Governing party Georgian Dream intends to bring the law into force by the middle of May. It would make mandatory official registration of organisations that receive 20% or more of their funding from abroad. Critics see clear parallels between this document and the Russian ‘foreign agents’ law which allows the Russian authorities to take harsh measures against critical media and other organisations.

Throughout the weekend thousands of people continued to protest in Tbilisi against the bill ‘On the transparency of foreign influence’. In recent days the security forces have beaten and detained at least 20 people, according to Radio Liberty’s Georgian service.

On Saturday 11 May a ‘European March’ was held in the centre of Tbilisi against the ‘foreign agents’ law. It was attended by politicians, students, civil society activists, teachers and doctors. Alongside residents of Tbilisi, the demonstration attracted people from other towns and cities in Georgia. According to fact-checking project Visioner, at least 200,000 people took part in the march.

It is expected that the bill will be considered by the Georgian Parliament for its third and final reading on Monday.

In the US Congress there were calls for the Georgian government to immediately withdraw the ‘foreign agents’ bill which American legislators described as “harmful”.

Meanwhile, students from a dozen major Georgian universities announced the beginning of a mass strike on Monday 13 May. Teaching staff from these institutions will also take part alongside the students.

Pressklub.az asked Professor Vakhtang Maisaia, who has a PhD in military and political sciences, for his immediate comments on the situation in Tbilisi.

“It must be said that the situation is becoming very heated. In fact, students from Tbilisi’s universities have already officially joined the protests and have gone on strike. 

“In Parliament today it was recommended that the law be passed at its third reading. I felt as though I was watching a meeting of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union. First of all, the Parliament’s Justice Committee broke its own rules when in the space of literally 67 seconds the committee chair took this illegal decision. That was contrary to Georgian legislation, including the Law on Parliament and the Law on the Internal Regulation of Parliamentary Procedure. It was the kind of session that happened under Comrade Rafik Nishanov in 1989-90 or Comrade Lukyanov who went on to be part of the State Committee on the State of Emergency.”

According to Maisaia, mass repression of the demonstrators has already been seen today. “Nevertheless, the people are refusing to clear the area around the Parliament and the controversial law is already scheduled for its third reading tomorrow.

“In the mean time, large international delegations are arriving in Georgia. Today US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien is expected. He’s in charge of America’s sanctions policy. Senior officials from the European Union are also coming and so are representatives of international organisations. I think heavy pressure will be brought to bear on the Georgian authorities.

“And more importantly, there are sharp divisions within the governing party itself. Some leading figures have already said, speaking in a personal capacity, that they are also against the passing of this law. For example, Irakli Garibashvili, who was Prime Minister until recently, expressed this opinion. So that’s where things stand”, concluded Professor Maisaia.

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And so Baku remains perhaps the only calm place in the South Caucasus today. Many experts and observers of the events in Tbilisi and Yerevan are inclined to see behind them the hand of Moscow, engaging in hybrid activities to undermine the domestic political situation. Why would Moscow do this? Perhaps it wants to create “controlled chaos” in an attempt not to lose what remains of its influence in the region.

Rauf Orudzhev

[1] The State Committee on the State of Emergency was behind the attempted coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991.

Translated from Russian by Heather Stacey. Read the original article here.