The Peace Barrel

In Yerevan there’s a barrel that’s known as the Peace Barrel.

In 2010 the Caucasus regional freedom of information network held a meeting in Yerevan. After the meeting, which was organised by the George Washington University (USA) National Security Archive, the local partners took us on a tour of the Yerevan brandy factory. There they showed us this Peace Barrel which has been intriguing visitors since the last century. Displayed in its own special corner with a backdrop of flags, we were told that it will only be opened on the day the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia ends and a peace treaty is signed.

The barrel already bears the names of many dignitaries, presidents, prime ministers, co-chairs of the Minsk Group and other prominent figures who have visited Yerevan.

EVERYONE’S TALKING ABOUT PEACE

After the end of the war in 2020, securing a peace agreement became the top priority. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia and the powers in a position to influence the two parties started talking about the importance of concluding a peace treaty.

Yet there is still no peace treaty. Of course, we can list the objective and subjective reasons why this is the case. In conflict theory, this situation is known as ‘conflict in the name of peace’, meaning that everyone wants peace but each side has certain conditions. And these conditions themselves are a source of conflict.

Foreign powers are actively trying to influence the situation, each one seeking ‘custody’ of the peace treaty. It’s well known that the role of mediator in resolving relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia is one claimed by Russia, the USA and Europe. There are other contenders too, but they are less active.

As far as the conditions set by the two sides are concerned, the situation changed following the military operation of 19 September 2023. New realities have emerged. They may have been created by Azerbaijan, but peace can only be brought closer by taking appropriate steps that account for these new realities.

One such step was taken on 7 December 2023.

ARMENIA’S SUPPORT FOR AZERBAIJAN AND AZERBAIJAN’S SUPPORT FOR ARMENIA

The Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia signed an agreement on 7 December 2023 in which they clearly expressed support for each other:

“As a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Armenia withdraws its candidacy to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to support the bid of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia hope that the other countries within the Eastern European Group will also support Azerbaijan’s bid to host. As a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Azerbaijan supports the Republic of Armenia’s candidacy for membership of the Eastern European Group COP Bureau.”

The document did contain another positive element, as it also made reference to prisoner exchange. But prisoner exchanges between the two sides are something that has already happened previously. What was new was the idea of Azerbaijan and Armenia expressing support for each other in the international arena. Or at least it was unheard of since the beginning of the conflict in 1988.

Nevertheless, this joint statement certainly doesn’t mean that everything is going swimmingly and that we’re standing on the brink of peace.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are continuing to wage a fierce information war, in which one or other side from time to time celebrates a victory.

Recently, when tensions between Azerbaijan and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) came to a head, it was Armenia celebrating. Yerevan virtually presented the affair as its own diplomatic success. Whose diplomatic success it was really is difficult to say, but there is no doubt that the disagreement between Azerbaijan and PACE was used to full tactical advantage by Armenia in the information war with its neighbour.

LANDMINES ON THE PATH TO PEACE

At more or less the same time as the incident at PACE, Armenia took a further step by announcing it would provide Azerbaijan with eight maps of minefields.

At first glance you might think Azerbaijan should have welcomed this gesture. However, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that, since all the maps it had received previously had been 25% accurate at best, Baku had no faith in the new maps.

Nevertheless, in the current situation it is Europe rather than Armenia that is giving Azerbaijan more trouble and is a greater source of irritation. The actions of the European Union at times produce the same effect as a mine laid on the path to peace. It might go off at any moment. Or it might not go off. Provided no-one steps on it, of course.

WHERE TO SIGN THE PEACE DEAL?

For both conflicting parties the most talked about issue today is where the peace treaty should be signed. In addition to Washington, Brussels and Moscow, another possible contender is Tbilisi. Georgia’s capital has been mentioned as a more neutral and less risky location. Against this backdrop, the mutual recriminations between the parties claiming the role of mediators in the conclusion of a peace agreement have intensified and their pronouncements about the real objectives of each other’s participation in the negotiating process are becoming increasingly strident.

Ultimately, this is having a very disruptive effect on the peace process and at some stage it may even undermine it.

But there is another option.

In November Baku will host COP29. I would remind you that Azerbaijan and Armenia supported each other’s role in the organisation of this event.

This is the biggest political event of the year and it will be attended by representatives of all the global power centres. The UN Secretary-General is also expected to be there.

COP is a platform born of serious concerns about the future of the planet, but is it not the case that the gravest threat to our global future is conflict?

The signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia at this time and in this place would have symbolic meaning and would sound a rallying call to all states and nations in conflict.

But for that to happen, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan would have to travel to Baku.

And why shouldn’t he?

Something similar happened after the Turkish presidential elections. Nikol Pashinyan was invited to Ankara and took part in the inauguration ceremony for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

So a peace treaty or a memorandum of intent could be signed in Baku in the presence of the UN Secretary-General. Not under the umbrella of any particular state but by the will of two peoples and under the auspices of the United Nations.

It is true that the current realities are not conducive to a speedy achievement of peace. But, in the words of an old proverb, you count your chickens in the autumn. And by the autumn, when the biggest political event of the year takes place, a lot could have changed.

Despite terse utterances by the leaders and occasional angry statements from the foreign ministries, contact continues between the two sides. This is evidenced by the document of 7 December 2023 mentioned above. It was also alluded to in the blunt statement made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs on the day the assassinated employee of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran was commemorated. Furthermore, information has emerged that the foreign policy chiefs of the two conflicting sides have resumed their meetings to work on the text of a peace treaty. If there is bilateral contact, if the process is ongoing, it will lead to something.

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In conclusion, if there is a process, there will also be a result. I’ve already talked about the chickens being counted in the autumn. I’ve already told you about the Peace Barrel of brandy. It would be nice to have them together at the same table. If Armenia’s Prime Minister comes to Baku and brings the Peace Barrel with him, everyone could enjoy a brandy together: the USA, Russia, Europe and the other countries. However, the parties would do well to remember one thing – this brandy has been waiting for its hour to come for many decades and has probably become highly potent. Everyone should definitely be on their guard.

Asaf Guliev

Translated from Russian by Heather Stacey. Read the original article here