From Hostility to Peace? Treading the hard path of reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan – Alexander Iskandaryan & Ali Abbasov

Resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the state level could contribute significantly towards overcoming Armenian-Azerbaijani interethnic hostility. Creating the conditions for reconciliation between the two societies after decades of conflict requires channels of cooperation and internal discussions about peaceful, neighbourly coexistence.

This was the conclusion reached during a conversation between political scientist and director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan (Yerevan) and academic Ali Abbasov (Baku). Their discussion took place on CivilNet as part of the ‘Line of Contact’ initiative run by the Yerevan and Baku Press Clubs.

The main topic of the conversation was ‘If the circumstances were favourable, how long would it take to overcome the interethnic hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan?’ In particular, the two contributors considered the roles that should be played by the governments, politicians, experts, civil society and media of both countries. They also explored the question of what Armenians and Azerbaijanis understand by peace and reconciliation.

Azerbaijani academic Ali Abbasov believes that the first steps in defusing the hostility between two societies who live side by side but in enmity should involve the governments finding ways and means of cooperation.

Translated from Russian by Heather Stacey. Read the original article in Russian here.

“There are different options for how Azerbaijan and Armenia can become real partners politically, economically and geostrategically and that could facilitate a normalisation of relations between the two societies. The task is to seek and find ways for relations to develop towards greater mutual understanding.”

According to Armenian political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan, a political settlement of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a necessary precondition for addressing interethnic hostility but it isn’t enough on its own.

“Regularising relations between the countries is certainly a necessary step towards a gradual reduction or levelling out of this hostility, but it doesn’t go far enough. After political normalisation – which involves signing a peace treaty, stabilising the borders, opening up communications and establishing diplomatic relations – a great deal of work will need to be done by intellectuals, historians, the media and civil society organisations from both countries”, explained Iskandaryan. He also noted that once interethnic tensions arise and become political, they don’t disappear overnight.

Indeed, in his opinion, it may take generations, as the two wars between the countries – major conflicts by local standards – touched hundreds of thousands of lives. People lost relatives and property and for many it is hard to accept the new reality.

The two experts agreed that a great deal of time and effort will be needed to heal the interethnic tensions, since the enmity of the last thirty or more years has permeated many areas of life in the two countries. It is present in public discourse in so many spheres – in the media, the education system and in other social and political arenas. To overcome this will take far more than just signing a document, even a peace treaty, at the level of the heads of state.

Abbasov put forward his strategy for solving the problem, calling on Armenians and Azerbaijanis to shift the focus away from the ethnic aspect of their identities and to form political nations.

“This interethnic conflict characterises our societies as ‘latecomer nations’ – it’s a phenomenon that exists in most of the post-Soviet states. In these ‘latecomer nations’ the ethnic element remains dominant and disrupts political development. The sooner our states become nations in the sense of uniting different ethnic groups and moving away from the ethnic element, the sooner the foundations will be laid for further progress. This is the path that most ethnic groups and peoples have trodden”, Ali Abbasov asserted.

Despite the existing tensions, demand for peace is gradually growing in Armenian and Azerbaijani society. Evidence of this can be seen in the results of sociological surveys conducted in the two countries. The most recent such study was published in Armenia by the American International Republican Institute in March 2024. According to the data, 17% of respondents listed “establishing peace” as one of two important goals for the government of Nikol Pashinyan in the next six months. It is particularly noteworthy that the top two responses were “establishing peace” and “strengthening the army”.

Meanwhile, according to data from polls conducted by Azerbaijan’s Social Research Centre in November 2023 and some weeks earlier, about 83% of the country’s population supports concluding a peace treaty with Armenia.

Against this background, the intensity of the dialogue and interaction at different levels between Yerevan and Baku has become unprecedentedly high. Negotiations between the two sides are happening from the level of the heads of government to the ministries of foreign affairs, the deputy prime ministers, Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan and Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev, as well as between the security services and ministries of defence.

Ali Abbasov was in favour of intensifying the bilateral negotiations without intermediaries, because the latter are chiefly focused not on resolving the conflict but on pursuing “their own interests”.

“My knowledge of history has taught me that the most productive negotiations have been those without third parties. Intermediaries bring new interests into the context of our negotiation process and, as a rule, these are not in line with the interests of the parties directly involved in the conflict”, he argued. He went on to point out that this view was confirmed by the agreement between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan of 7 December 2023 on prisoner exchanges, confidence-building measures and Yerevan’s support for Baku’s bid to host the COP29 conference.

However, Abbasov believes that the peace process should be universal and comprehensive. In addition to the politicians, it is important for expert communities and representatives of non-governmental organisations to become more active in extending the scope of the dialogue towards the public arena.

“It’s time to move from words to actions. If civil society representatives really have proposals for how to solve the conflict, they should voice them. This is a recognition of the need for civil society and its role in developing models of conflict resolution”, the Azerbaijani expert emphasised.

Alexander Iskandaryan agreed with the idea of involving NGOs and experts in resolving the conflict. However, he was doubtful whether, with the politicisation of the conflict, it would do much to facilitate reconciliation, unless the governments of the two countries take concrete steps in the same direction.

He formulated his doubts as follows: “Of course, expert communities can suggest various options and scenarios and they are doing that, but the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not an intellectual problem. It’s a conflict at state level and all the scenarios for resolving it were set down long ago. But it’s only if the will and the demand are there that these scenarios can be put into action.”

In his view, the fundamental problem is the asymmetrical perception of the peace settlement by Baku and Yerevan. In other words, the scenarios for peace that the Azerbaijani side is happy with aren’t accepted by Yerevan and the scenarios for a peace settlement that reflects the interests of the Armenian side are rejected by the Azerbaijani leadership.

Here Iskandaryan also touched on Abbasov’s idea of excluding intermediaries. Not disputing the fact that intermediaries have their “own interests” in the conflict, he nevertheless observed that excluding them from the negotiating process would not make achieving peace any more realistic.

Summing up, he concluded: “Unfortunately, the Armenians and Azerbaijanis have plenty of reasons to be in conflict with each other. The issue is not about intermediaries, it’s about us – states and societies – being prepared to achieve real peace. If and when that happens, that will be the time to bring in the intellectuals who will help the people of both countries to reconcile themselves with their history. Or at least appreciate the ways in which the perceptions of the other side naturally differ from their own – that’s the first step.”