Contradictions, perhaps, but only at first glance – Will anything change for Armenia and Azerbaijan following statement by Raisi and Khamenei?

Will anything change for Armenia and Azerbaijan following statements by Raisi and Khamenei?

After the recent tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi questions have risen about the future of relations between Iran and Azerbaijan. On 22 May, during a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, emphasised the importance of strengthening ties with Armenia. News agency Turan noted that this meeting, which took place shortly after Raisi’s funeral, highlighted Tehran’s commitment to the relationship with Yerevan. Khamenei said: “The late president also viewed relations with Armenia as a priority. We will continue our policy with these sensitive matters in mind.”

However, just a few hours before the helicopter crash which claimed his life on 19 May, Raisi had been with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev at the inauguration ceremony of a hydroelectric complex on their shared border. Raisi had expressed his hopes for mutual development, saying: “Our enemies don’t want to see development in Azerbaijan or Iran. We believe that Azerbaijan’s development is also our development.” Aliyev supported this opinion, noting that regional development should be determined by the local population, without outside interference.

Is there perhaps a certain dissonance between the statements made by Supreme Leader Khamenei and late President Raisi? It’s no coincidence that one of the most popular theories about the Iranian President’s death circulating among experts in the region is that it may have been the result of a political struggle within Iran’s highest echelons. It is suggested that some of the elite saw Raisi as a successor to the aging Khamenei who, for his part, didn’t support this idea. And it’s possible that these differences of opinion may also have extended to the future of Tehran’s relations with Baku and Yerevan.

Incidentally, immediately after the death of Raisi, President Aliyev announced that they had reached agreement on a number of bilateral issues during their meeting and that he hoped that the surviving participants of the meeting would pass on all the relevant information to the Iranian leadership.

What might the future of relations between Iran and Azerbaijan look like in light of these events and pronouncements? And how might these matters affect the processes between Baku and Yerevan?

Pressklub.az turned to two well-known regional experts for answers to these questions.

Iranian specialist Anna Gevorgyan said that it initially appears that the above comments are contradictory, but that’s only the case at first glance.

“If two factors are taken into account, I think this contradiction disappears. 

“Firstly, a remark by Iran’s spiritual leader to the effect that President Raisi was sensitive to issues around the border between Armenia and Iran really appears to be a diplomatic gesture, as this sensitivity to the issue is not driven by the person of the President but was and remains associated with Iran’s long-term regional interests. 

“Secondly, what Ebrahim Raisi said about relations between Iran and Azerbaijan doesn’t contradict the idea of ‘sensitivities’ in relations between Armenia and Iran. I believe that Iran’s policy in the region was and will be conditional on balanced relationships with Armenia and Azerbaijan. This policy underscores the principle of the territorial integrity of all countries and the deepening of economic relations with these countries.”

Political commentator Murad Sadaddinov observed that numerous conspiracy theories are currently emerging.

“These kinds of conspiracy theory always appear around the circumstances of the sudden death of a state leader. It’s a time when all sorts of theories abound, including for example that the incident happened not due to a technical fault with the helicopter or because of adverse weather conditions, but because it was a premeditated plan by certain forces to eliminate potential successors to the leadership of the Iranian regime. I don’t support these theories, so I can’t say anything about it. Nevertheless, I think that the reason for the death of the Iranian President is due to a confluence of circumstances with an accumulation of factors ”

Regarding the comments made by Khamenei during his meeting with the Armenian Prime Minister, Sadaddinov sees them as a statement of protocol. “I think the Iranian leader always talks about the importance of strengthening relations with Armenia, and Tehran has always had an exceptional policy in relation to Yerevan, as it sees this as helping to balance its relationship with Azerbaijan and Turkey. I think this approach will be maintained. 

“Regarding Azerbaijan, the country is becoming an important player for Iran today. Tehran may even need to work in partnership with Baku, because in terms of direct access to one of its key allies – Russia – Azerbaijan is an important factor and may be the only intermediary country which can ensure communication between them.

“Secondly, Iran understands that a process is underway to strengthen relations between the Turkic states and to avoid being sidelined it needs to repair the relationship with Azerbaijan which it previously damaged. That’s why the rhetoric we’re going to be hearing from Iran towards Azerbaijan will be rather different in future. Azerbaijan is currently a relatively strong and important player in the region and I think the relationship with Iran is set to grow.” 

Sadaddinov concluded: “I’m not anticipating that the future leader of Iran will make any decisions in relation to Azerbaijan that starkly contradict the policies of Raisi. I think the line taken by the late President will continue in a positive direction. I don’t currently see any risk of this changing and I would suggest that after the elections the new president will reiterate the previous statements made by Raisi in relation to both Azerbaijan and Armenia.”

Rauf Orudzhev

Translated from Russian by Heather Stacey.