Baku and Yerevan should be on their guard

By the end of April 2024 over half the geodetic measurements required for the delimitation of the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia had been completed and 35 border posts had been established. According to officials, this represents significant progress in the challenging process of defining the border between the two former Soviet republics.

Azerbaijan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Shahin Mustafayev, stated that efforts to coordinate the work are steadily advancing. “Installing the border posts is a key stage in the demarcation process which ensures that the physical border conforms to the 1991 agreement”, he said during a press briefing in Baku.

The delimitation process is being implemented in line with the Alma-Ata Declaration, adopted in 1991 by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Declaration served as the founding document for border delineation based on the administrative borders that existed at the dissolution of the USSR.

Arzu Naghiyev, a member of Azerbaijan’s Milli Mejlis (National Assembly) who sits on the parliamentary committee on defence, security and counter-corruption, emphasised how important it was to use historical maps for the precise demarcation of the border. “After the collapse of the USSR in 1990, each of the republics became an independent state. It was decided that the delimitation and demarcation of the borders should be based on the 1991 maps”, Naghiyev told news agency Turan.

The current delimitation work includes detailed geodetic surveys and the placing of physical markers along agreed lines. This meticulous process is essential to prevent future territorial disputes and strengthen bilateral relations.

Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have expressed commitment to continuing the delimitation process, focusing on resolving outstanding issues and strengthening their borders. Officially, they say the work to date reflects a shared understanding and a mutual desire to adhere to international norms and historical precedents.

The process is certainly encouraging, but is there any assurance that the parties will be allowed to continue their work without disruption? After all, there are other states with interests in our region. Might they obstruct the process and create some sort of provocation to prevent the successful completion of the border delineation between Armenia and Azerbaijan? What should Baku and Yerevan do to avoid falling prey to such underhand activities?

Pressklub.az invited Russian political expert Egor Kuroptev (Tbilisi) to share his thoughts.

He immediately pointed out that, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the delimitation of the borders has been subject to manipulation and has been used as a tool for influence by the Kremlin. “That applies to the borders of Georgia (Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region). It applies to the border between Georgia and Azerbaijan, with the famous case of the David Gareji monastery complex which the Kremlin also exploits at every opportunity. Without question, it also applies to Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

According to Kuroptev, the Kremlin doesn’t currently have much leverage to undermine the delimitation process between Baku and Yerevan. However, we shouldn’t expect that the Kremlin will ignore the fact that the countries are moving towards peace. “Real peace between Azerbaijan and an Armenia that is striving for democracy and cooperation with the democratic world would deprive Moscow of even the slightest chance of exerting pressure on either side, so we can expect attempts at interference.

“Given that the Kremlin has a super-loyal administration in Russian-occupied Georgia, Moscow will try to exploit the border issue and the peace process to push its policies in the other countries of the South Caucasus too”, Kuroptev asserted.

Rauf Orudzhev

Translated from Russian by Heather Stacey. Read the original here.