MIDDLE EAST ABLAZE AT THE GATES OF THE CAUCASUS?
MIDDLE EAST ABLAZE AT THE GATES OF THE CAUCASUS?
- 28/10/2024
EXPERT PERSPECTIVES FROM BAKU AND YEREVAN
A year after flaring up again with renewed force in October 2023, the war between Israel and Hamas has spread to Lebanon and Hezbollah, threatening to drag ally Iran into the hostilities and plunge the whole Middle East into a major conflict.
The anniversary of the start of the war in the Middle East was the topic of one of the discussions between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts broadcast on the CivilNet channel and organised as part of the ‘Line of Contact’ project run by the Yerevan and Baku Press Clubs. Regional experts from Armenia and Azerbaijan, Arsen Kharatyan and Ruslan Suleymanov, talked about the impact on the South Caucasus of the military confrontation between Israel and radical groups Hamas and Hezbollah. They shared their views on the potential consequences of this crisis for the region, considering key aspects of the situation and its possible impact on the difficult relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
A local war or a regional one?
One year on from the beginning of the latest wave of conflict in the Middle East, Ruslan Suleymanov would still describe the political and military situation as a series of local military conflicts unfolding primarily between Israel and Hamas and between Israel and Hezbollah. However, despite the apparently local nature of these conflicts, the situation has attracted the attention and indirect involvement of a number of external actors. For example, although not directly involved, Iran and Yemen are providing support to Israel’s opponents.
In the opinion of Azerbaijani expert Suleymanov, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ‘mowing the grass’ strategy to contain Hamas collapsed on 7 October 2023. As it turned out, Hamas had long been preparing for a protracted war, including through the creation of an extensive network of underground tunnels. As a result, according to Suleymanov, the conflict has reached a stalemate where each side is holding firm to its positions and sees no possibility of compromise.
The situation has been further exacerbated by the fact that Netanyahu’s political survival has become dependent on the continuation of the military operation in Gaza. Suleymanov sees it as no coincidence that, in view of the stalemate, the Israeli leadership began a military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, distracting attention from the situation in Gaza. He predicts that the conflict will spiral, albeit still on a local scale, and envisages no prospect of a ceasefire, even a temporary one, in the foreseeable future.
Armenian expert Arsen Kharatyan regards the situation somewhat differently, seeing a tendency for the conflict to expand geographically in the Middle East. The Lebanese army has begun to respond to rocket attacks by Israel and this could lead to Lebanon’s full-scale involvement in the conflict. In addition, in one way or another, Iran, the UK and the USA are also involved.
The relationship between the Jewish state and Iran remains particularly tense. Tehran accuses Israel of conducting an operation to liquidate the senior leadership of Hamas on Iranian territory and has responded with its own acts of military intimidation by launching rocket attacks against Israeli targets. “Turkey and Russia also have interests in the region and are seeking to influence how the situation develops”, said Kharatyan, stressing that this kind of escalation of the conflict would create a complex and unpredictable situation which would potentially jeopardise the stability of the whole of the Middle East.
Impact on the South Caucasus – indirect but significant
Although the conflict in the Middle East may at first glance not appear to have any direct connection with the South Caucasus, many experts agree that it could have a potentially significant impact on the region, especially in Armenia and Azerbaijan. That’s the view of Arsen Kharatyan who believes that external factors, including conflicts in the Middle East, have historically affected Armenian-Azerbaijani relations quite considerably as far back as the 1990s.
The geographical proximity of the South Caucasus and the Middle East and the complex geopolitical links between them means events in the neighbouring region have an impact on the Caucasus, making it vulnerable to outside influences and geopolitical changes.
Contrastingly, Ruslan Suleymanov thinks that the South Caucasus has its own particular characteristics which are not directly contingent on events in the Middle East. However, he does note that account should be taken of the close relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel, which includes cooperation in the military and oil sectors. During the discussion with Arsen Kharatyan he highlighted the fact that “Azerbaijan is a key supplier of oil and oil products to Israel”. He went on to point out that, given its links with both Israel and the Arab world, Azerbaijan takes a cautious stance on the conflict and avoids expressing direct sympathy with either side.
The experts paid particular attention to Iran’s role in the dynamics of the region.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could lead to more active involvement by Iran which, in turn, could have unanticipated consequences for the South Caucasus. If the conflict with Israel escalates, tensions in Tehran’s foreign policy will also deepen. Suleymanov believes that this could create unforeseen hazards. He clarified that these hazards may not necessarily be due to deliberate actions on the part of Iran, but are more likely to be the result of general tensions in the country when the armed forces are put on alert.
He went on to cite an example: in January 2020, following the assassination of high-ranking Iranian general Qasem Soleimani on the outskirts of Baghdad, Iran stood on the brink of war with the United States. This led to the tragic incident where a Ukrainian passenger flight from Tehran was shot down. The plane was accidentally targeted by Iranian armed forces who were in a jittery state of heightened alert when they reacted to the appearance of the aircraft.
Based on past experience, Suleymanov warned that something similar could happen in the South Caucasus. A shot could be misfired or someone could fail to hold their nerve. He believes that the situation is becoming more dangerous for the whole region – for Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
Arsen Kharatyan also identified potential threats posed to the South Caucasus by the Middle East conflict. In his opinion, if Iran were to become directly involved in the war, it could lead to “all sorts of consequences” for the South Caucasus. However, contradicting Suleymanov’s view, he said he didn’t think the issue was about the accidental firing of shots. Referring to the existence of communication between officials in Armenia and Azerbaijan, he expressed conviction that when these issues arise they can still be managed. He recalled an incident that took place last year: “With the escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2023, we can see that the existence of communication meant it could quickly be resolved”.
Risk of increased migration for Armenia
Continuing to look at the impact of the Middle East crisis on the countries of the South Caucasus, the expert from Yerevan considered that Armenia could face migration issues, for example in the event of a worsening situation in Lebanon, where there is a sizeable Armenian community. If the conflict were to escalate, Armenia would probably be the main host country for refugees from the neighbouring region, as happened during the war in Syria.
When the military conflict in Syria began in 2011, Syrian citizens of Armenian origin fled to Armenia and the country eventually received over 20,000 of them. Mentioning the recent aerial attacks by the Israeli air force, including on the neighbourhood of Bourj Hammoud in Beirut which has a large Armenian population, Kharatyan noted that this will probably only increase the risk to Yerevan of greater migration flows.
Middle East absorbing the attention of world powers
Arsen Kharatyan thinks that external factors could have a significant impact on the dynamics of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. He cited the example of the presidential elections in the USA, a country which in recent years has made active efforts to resolve relations between Baku and Yerevan and the crisis in the Middle East.
Both experts agreed that delaying the negotiation process amplifies the risk of renewed escalation. The Armenian expert said that outside actors, especially Russia and the USA, want to secure and strengthen their influence in the South Caucasus. It is becoming increasingly evident that they are competing with each other for the role of mediator in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The experts believe that this in no way serves to stabilise the situation in the region. In fact, tensions between the key external actors in many ways further complicate the conflict resolution process.
In this context, Ruslan Suleymanov concluded that there is currently no geopolitical consensus about the resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The different actors, including the USA and Russia, each have their own interests in the region and these often contradict each other. The situation is also exacerbated by the fact that other more large-scale crises are absorbing the attention and resources of the global superpowers and settling the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not a top priority on their international agendas. Suleymanov felt that this makes it harder to find effective solutions. In the current complex geopolitical and regional realities, Arsen Kharatyan highlighted the importance of intensifying bilateral negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. He considers that continuing the inter-governmental dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan is crucial to prevent negative consequences stemming from the geopolitical processes in the region.
This article was translated from Russian by Heather Stacey, the original can be found here.
